Ongoing Estimation of the Epidemic Parameters of a Stochastic, Spatial, Discrete-Time Model for a 1983–84 Avian Influenza Epidemic

C. Rorres,; S. T. K. Pelletier,; M. C. Bruhn,; G Smith

doi:10.1637/9429-061710-Reg.1

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1 March 2011 Ongoing Estimation of the Epidemic Parameters of a Stochastic, Spatial, Discrete-Time Model for a 1983–84 Avian Influenza Epidemic

C. Rorres,, S. T. K. Pelletier,, M. C. Bruhn,, G Smith

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Avian Diseases, 55(1):35-42 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1637/9429-061710-Reg.1

Abstract

We formulate a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model of viral “Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered” animal epidemics and apply it to an avian influenza epidemic in Pennsylvania in 1983–84. Using weekly data for the number of newly infectious cases collected during the epidemic, we find estimates for the latent period of the virus and the values of two parameters within the transmission kernel of the model. These data are then jackknifed on a progressive weekly basis to show how our estimates can be applied to an ongoing epidemic to generate continually improving values of certain epidemic parameters.

American Association of Avian Pathologists

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C. Rorres,, S. T. K. Pelletier,, M. C. Bruhn,, and G Smith "Ongoing Estimation of the Epidemic Parameters of a Stochastic, Spatial, Discrete-Time Model for a 1983–84 Avian Influenza Epidemic," Avian Diseases 55(1), 35-42, (1 March 2011). https://doi.org/10.1637/9429-061710-Reg.1

Received: 25 June 2010; Accepted: 1 November 2010; Published: 1 March 2011

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