A Just–Pope production function is employed to investigate the effects of historic weather changes on hard red spring wheat yield variability in Manitoba. Field-level data on wheat yield, proportion of wheat seeded area, and fertilizer inputs from the Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation were employed to determine how temperature and precipitation affect mean wheat yield and production risk, and how projected climate scenarios impact yield variability in heterogeneous risk areas of Manitoba. Variety richness increases average yield and reduces yield variance while varieties protected by plant breeders’ rights increase yield variance. Phosphorus fertilizer is positively associated with average wheat yield while total precipitation is shown to negatively affect mean yield and positively impact yield variability. June precipitation matters while June and July temperatures negatively affect yield. Projected climate change is expected to increase yield variability in both the medium (2034–2050) and long term (2079–2095), both under low- and high-carbon scenarios with production variance effects differing across crop districts. Adaptation strategies may be required to mitigate yield risk effects of climate change resulting in late seeding decisions from increased spring precipitation.
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4 December 2017
Climate change impacts on hard red spring wheat yield and production risk: evidence from Manitoba, Canada
R. Carew,
T. Meng,
W.J. Florkowski,
R. Smith,
D. Blair
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Canadian Journal of Plant Science
Vol. 98 • No. 3
June 2018
Vol. 98 • No. 3
June 2018
Diagnostic
diagnostic testing
essai de spécification des modèles
fonction de production Just–Pope
Just–Pope production function
Manitoba
mean wheat yield