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26 December 2019 MaxEnt Modeling to Predict Current and Future Distributions of Batocera lineolata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under Climate Change in China
Ainan Li, Jiawen Wang, Rulin Wang, Hua Yang, Wei Yang, Chunping Yang, Zhang Jin
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Abstract

Climate warming extends insect distribution areas, increases voltinism and makes pest prevention and control more difficult. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling software was used to simulate Batocera lineolata distribution and predict potential range changes under climate change scenarios. Future B. lineolata distribution was modeled for three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict suitable regions in the 2050s and 2070s. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to estimate model precision and a jackknife test was used to screen the dominant environmental variables. The results show that the area under the curve of the B. lineolata distribution model could reach an ‘Excellent’ standard. Under current climate conditions, the most suitable region for B. lineolata is 25.5–40.5°N, 102–120°E, distributed discontinuously from south to north and covering an area of 47.17 × 104 km2. For predicted future distribution, except for a decrease in moderately suitable regions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2050s and RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 in the 2070s, other suitable regions are likely to extend; highly suitable regions would increase continuously. This research provides a theoretical basis to improve pest management strategies regarding B. lineolata to face the challenge of climate change.

© 2019 Université Laval
Ainan Li, Jiawen Wang, Rulin Wang, Hua Yang, Wei Yang, Chunping Yang, and Zhang Jin "MaxEnt Modeling to Predict Current and Future Distributions of Batocera lineolata (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under Climate Change in China," Ecoscience 27(1), 23-31, (26 December 2019). https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2019.1673604
Received: 3 April 2019; Accepted: 31 August 2019; Published: 26 December 2019
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KEYWORDS
arcGIS
Batocera lineolata
climate change
habitat distribution
MaxEnt model
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