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1 December 2002 Evaluation of Pecan Nut Casebearer Acrobasis nuxvorella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Prediction Models Using Pheromone Trapping
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Two existing models for predicting first entry of pecan nut casebearer (Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig) larvae into pecans were evaluated in Oklahoma over a 2-yr period. In 1996, the Texas model had a mean accuracy for predicting first significant nut entry of 5.2 d late, and the Georgia model estimated this same parameter 8.2 d early. Predictions for 1997 were better for both models with the Texas and Georgia models predicting first significant entry 3.2 and 4.0 d early, respectively. The Texas model was consistently late in predicting first significant entry dates in 1996 although three of the seven sites were within 1 d of the observed entry date. The Georgia model was consistently early in its prediction for 1996. Both models showed a mix of over and under predictions for 1997, possibly due in part to the severe spring freeze observed over much of the state. Based on 2 yr of data, as well as data collected in 1998, degree-day (DD) thresholds derived from the Texas model were established for the following phenological events; onset of trapping for adults using pheromone-baited traps (1,100 DD), initiation of scouting for eggs (1,500 DD), and initiation of scouting for damage (1,600 DD).

Richard A. Grantham, Phillip G. Mulder Jr., Gerrit W. Cuperus, and John D. Carlson "Evaluation of Pecan Nut Casebearer Acrobasis nuxvorella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) Prediction Models Using Pheromone Trapping," Environmental Entomology 31(6), 1062-1070, (1 December 2002).
Received: 27 August 2001; Accepted: 1 July 2002; Published: 1 December 2002

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