Two existing models for predicting first entry of pecan nut casebearer (Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig) larvae into pecans were evaluated in Oklahoma over a 2-yr period. In 1996, the Texas model had a mean accuracy for predicting first significant nut entry of 5.2 d late, and the Georgia model estimated this same parameter 8.2 d early. Predictions for 1997 were better for both models with the Texas and Georgia models predicting first significant entry 3.2 and 4.0 d early, respectively. The Texas model was consistently late in predicting first significant entry dates in 1996 although three of the seven sites were within 1 d of the observed entry date. The Georgia model was consistently early in its prediction for 1996. Both models showed a mix of over and under predictions for 1997, possibly due in part to the severe spring freeze observed over much of the state. Based on 2 yr of data, as well as data collected in 1998, degree-day (DD) thresholds derived from the Texas model were established for the following phenological events; onset of trapping for adults using pheromone-baited traps (1,100 DD), initiation of scouting for eggs (1,500 DD), and initiation of scouting for damage (1,600 DD).
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