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24 September 2019 Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks
Christopher M. Barker
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Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:
Christopher M. Barker "Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks," Journal of Medical Entomology 56(6), 1508-1515, (24 September 2019).
Received: 18 July 2019; Accepted: 8 August 2019; Published: 24 September 2019

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decision support
early warning
West Nile virus
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