Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis' range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990–2013. With Maine's wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ∼5 deer/km2 (13 deer/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ∼2 deer/km2 (∼6/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.
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9 September 2020
A Generalized Additive Model Correlating Blacklegged Ticks With White-Tailed Deer Density, Temperature, and Humidity in Maine, USA, 1990–2013
Susan P. Elias,
Allison M. Gardner,
Kirk A. Maasch,
Sean D. Birkel,
Norman T. Anderson,
Peter W. Rand,
Charles B. Lubelczyk,
Robert P. Smith Jr
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Journal of Medical Entomology
Vol. 58 • No. 1
February 2021
Vol. 58 • No. 1
February 2021
blacklegged tick
Climate
Ixodes scapularis
Maine
white-tailed deer