This article presents results from a stated preference survey of U.S. households intended to value the public's preferences for enhancements to the protection of the western stock of Steller sea lions, which is listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act. To account for the uncertainty of future populations under current programs without additional protection efforts, three survey versions were implemented that each present different, yet plausible, baseline futures for Steller sea lions. Stated preference choice experiment data from each survey are analyzed using repeated, rank ordered random parameters logit models, and welfare estimates are calculated and compared for each baseline for a variety of possible improvements. The willingness to pay (WTP) results reflect positive, but diminishing, marginal utility for improvements in the western stock population, regardless of baseline future: WTP increases for population improvements until the population greatly exceeds the current population, at which point the WTP for additional improvements levels off. Similarly, as would be expected, WTP for improvements to the western stock population decreases as the future baseline population forecast improves.

JEL Classification Codes: Q51

We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate impacts of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: i) a 31% reduction in the walleye pollock allowable catch; ii) a 125% increase in fuel price; and iii) both shocks simultaneously. The latter scenario reflects actual industry trends between 2004 and 2008. Impacts on endogenous output, employment, factor income, and household income are assessed. We also estimate changes in a measure of household welfare and compare model results against actual change in pollock and seafood prices. Few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appear in the literature. This study is unique in that it includes more disaggregated industry sectors and examines supply-side shocks that are difficult to address using fixed-price models. This study also overcomes a serious deficiency in models that use unadjusted seafood sector data in IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning) by developing the fish harvesting and processing sectors independently from available data, supplemented by interviews with key informants to ground-truth industry cost estimates.

JEL Classification Codes: Q22, R13

Traditional surplus production models are based on restrictive assumptions of fish population dynamics and distribution, fish catch, and fishing effort, and can provide misleading guidelines for fisheries management. Following a review of two conventional models and later contributions, this article first reassesses the rationale for unique sustainable fishery equilibrium and its estimation, in light of complex responses associated with non-constant marginal returns, target switching, and stochastic variability. A new modelling approach is then formulated, with specifications estimated by classical or cointegration regression techniques accounting for possible switches in long-run equilibrium parameters and varying strengths of short-run readjustments. This approach is applied to marine fisheries in Indonesia (Java Sea) and Papua New Guinea, and results are compared with traditional model specifications. Parametric and nonparametric estimates highlight specific problems in the conventional approach, in terms of diagnostic tests and long-term equilibrium analysis.

JEL Classification Codes: C14, C22, Q22

This article investigates the relationship between optimal gear selectivity and effort cost in the fishing industry. We first show that optimal selectivity depends negatively on the level of effort cost, but that this relationship is not continuous. Optimal selectivity switches when real effort cost goes beyond a certain level, and this switch induces a non-marginal reduction in the level of fishing effort. In the second part of this article, we show that the current level of real effort cost in the Nephrops fishery of the Bay of Biscay is far below the switch point, which makes high selectivity optimal. The discrepancy between optimal and current selectivity may be explained by the state of the fishery management and also by the fact that selectivity is hardly observable with the type of gear presently used.

JEL Classification Codes: Q22, Q57, H23

Starting point bias is a common problem in closed-ended non-market valuation studies. This article analyses two possible methods to reduce starting point bias in choice experiments, namely to induce value learning through completion of a payment ladder and to induce institutional learning by framing the choice experiment in a familiar context. The two methods are applied in a valuation study of sustainable flatfish fisheries in the North Sea. The results of this study suggest that there is considerable public support for policies aimed at reducing damage to the benthic ecosystem, limiting fishing pressure during the plaice spawning period, and restoring spawning stock biomass of plaice and sole. The payment ladder has a strong impact on respondents' sensitivity to the cost variable in the choice experiment. Neither learning method, however, has a statistically significant effect on starting point bias.

JEL Classification Codes: Q22, Q51, D03