Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most unequivocal consequences of climate change, yet the implications for shorebirds and their coastal habitats are not well understood, especially outside of the north temperate zone. Here, we show that by the year 2050, SLR has the potential to cause significant habitat loss and reduce the quality of the remaining coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico—one of the most important regions for Nearctic breeding migratory shorebirds. Specifically, we used species distribution modeling and a moderate SLR static inundation scenario to assess the effects of future SLR on coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico and the potential distribution of Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot), a threatened long-distance migratory shorebird. Our results suggest that under a moderate SLR scenario, 55% of the current coastal wetland extent in northwest Mexico will be at risk of permanent submergence by 2050, and the high-quality habitat areas that remain will be 20% less suitable for C. c. roselaari. What is more, 8 out of the 10 wetlands currently supporting the largest numbers of C. c. roselaari are predicted to lose, on average, 17.8% of their Highly Suitable Habitat (HSH) areas, with 2 sites completely losing all of their HSH. In combination with increasing levels of coastal development and anthropogenic disturbance in Northwest Mexico, these predicted changes suggest that the potential future distribution of C. c. roselaari (and other shorebirds) will likely contract, exacerbating their ongoing population declines. Our results also make clear that SLR will likely have profound effects on ecosystems outside the north temperate zones, providing a clarion call to natural resource managers. Urgent action is required to begin securing sufficient space to accommodate the natural capacity of wetlands to migrate inland and implement local-scale solutions that strengthen the resilience of wetlands and human populations to SLR.
How to Cite
Garcia-Walther, J., J. A. Johnson, and N. R. Senner (2024). Future sea-level rise in northwest Mexico is projected to decrease the distribution and habitat quality of the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot). Ornithological Applications 126:duae023.
LAY SUMMARY
Climate change is causing sea levels to drastically rise across the globe, yet our understanding of the consequences for coastal birds is limited.
Coastal wetlands in Northwest Mexico are some of the most important habitats for Nearctic breeding migratory shorebirds such as the endangered Calidris canutus roselaari (Red Knot).
We estimated the current C. c. roselaari habitat extent and suitability and quantified where and how much of their habitat is expected to change due to sea-level rise.
Our results indicate that by 2050, half of the coastal wetlands used by C. c. roselaari may no longer be suitable due to future sea-level rise. Moreover, the remaining habitat will have 20% lower habitat quality.
Sea-level rise (SLR) impacts, in combination with other human-driven threats, are likely to reduce the distribution of C. c. roselaari, worsening their population declines. Securing the future habitat quality and extent of C. c. roselaari, requires strengthening the resilience of coastal wetlands now.
El aumento del nivel del mar (ANM) es una de las consecuencias más inequívocas del cambio climático, sin embargo, las implicaciones para las aves playeras y sus hábitats costeros no se conocen bien, particularmente más allá del norte templado del continente. Aquí mostramos que para el año 2050, el ANM tiene el potencial de causar una pérdida significativa de hábitat y reducir la calidad de los humedales costeros en el noroeste de México, una de las regiones más importantes para las aves playeras migratorias neárticas. Específicamente, combinamos modelos de nicho ecológico y un escenario moderado de inundación de ANM para evaluar los efectos del ANM en los humedales costeros del noroeste de México y la distribución potencial de C. c. roselaari, un ave playera migratoria de larga distancia. Nuestros resultados sugieren que, en un escenario moderado de ANM, el 55% de la extensión actual de los humedales costeros del noroeste de México correrán el riesgo de quedar sumergidos de forma permanente en 2050, y las zonas con hábitat de calidad alta que queden serán un 20% menos adecuadas para C. c. roselaari. Además, se prevé que 8 de los 10 humedales que actualmente albergan el mayor número de C. c. roselaari perderán, en promedio, el 17.8% de sus zonas con hábitat de calidad alta, y que dos sitios perderán por completo todo su hábitat de alta calidad. En combinación con los crecientes niveles de desarrollo costero y perturbación antropogénica en el Noroeste de México, estos cambios sugieren que la distribución potencial futura de C. c. roselaari (y otras aves playeras) probablemente se contraerá, exacerbando su actual declive poblacional. Nuestros resultados también dejan claro que el ANM tendrá efectos negativos mas allá de los ecosistemas de las zonas templadas del norte del continente, lo que debería significar una alarma para los manejadores de recursos naturales. Es preciso tomar medidas urgentes para empezar a asegurar espacio suficiente para acomodar la capacidad natural de los humedales de migrar tierra adentro y aplicar soluciones a escala local que refuercen la resiliencia de los humedales y las poblaciones humanas frente al ANM.
