Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite—or even spurred by—this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.

Geographically explicit, taxonomically resolved fossil occurrences are necessary for reconstructing macroevolutionary patterns and for testing a wide range of hypotheses in the Earth and life sciences. Heterogeneity in the spatial and temporal distribution of fossil occurrences in the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) is attributable to several different factors, including turnover among biological communities, socioeconomic disparities in the intensity of paleontological research, and geological controls on the distribution and fossil yield of sedimentary deposits. Here we use the intersection of global geological map data from Macrostrat and fossil collections in the PBDB to assess the extent to which the potentially fossil-bearing, surface-expressed sedimentary record has yielded fossil occurrences. We find a significant and moderately strong positive correlation between geological map area and the number of fossil occurrences. This correlation is consistent regardless of map unit age and binning protocol, except at period level; the Neogene and Quaternary have non-marine map units covering large areas and yielding fewer occurrences than expected. The sedimentary record of North America and Europe yields significantly more fossil occurrences per sedimentary area than similarly aged deposits in most of the rest of the world. However, geographic differences in area and age of sedimentary deposits lead to regionally different expectations for fossil occurrences. Using the sampling of surface-expressed sedimentary units in North America and Europe as a predictor for what might be recoverable from the surface-expressed sedimentary deposits of other regions, we find that the rest of the globe is approximately 45% as well sampled in the PBDB. Using age and area of bedrock and sampling in North America and Europe as a basis for prediction, we estimate that more than 639,000 occurrences from outside these regions would need to be added to the PBDB to achieve global geological parity in sampling. In general, new terrestrial fossil occurrences are expected to have the greatest impact on our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns.

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover ∼40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, with tropical grasses accounting for ∼20% of global net primary productivity. C₃ (cool/temperate) and C₄ (tropical and subtropical) grass distribution is driven primarily by temperature. In this work, we used phytolith assemblages collected from vegetation plots along an elevation and temperature gradient in the northern Andes (Colombia and Ecuador) to develop a paleothermometer for the region. To accomplish this, we created a transfer function based on the inverse relationship between mean annual temperature (MAT) and the phytolith-based climatic index (Ic), which is the proportion of C₃ over C₄ grass phytoliths (GSSCP). To evaluate how accurately the index reflects C₄–C₃ grass abundance in vegetation plots, we compared it with semiquantitative floristic estimates of C₄–C₃ grass abundance. To further evaluate the 1 – Ic index as a proxy for C₄–C₃ grass abundance, we compared it with corresponding δ¹³C values (an independent proxy for C₄–C₃ vegetation). Results indicate that (1) GSSCP assemblages correctly estimate C₄–C₃ grass abundance in vegetation plots; (2) the Ic index outperforms the δ¹³C record in estimating C₄–C₃ grass abundance, even in open-vegetation types; and (3) our Ic index–based model accurately predicts MAT. This new calibrated proxy will help improve paleotemperature reconstructions in the northern Andes since at least the emergence and spread of C₄ grasses in the region during the late Miocene.

The impact of global climate events on local ecosystems can vary spatially. Understanding this potential heterogeneity can illuminate which environments will be most impacted and the proximal drivers of ecosystem responses. Cenomanian–Turonian marine deposits of the Western Interior Seaway (WIS) record paleoceanographic changes associated with the Greenhorn transgression and the onset of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). They provide an ideal setting to study basin-wide paleoecological responses during a global perturbation. Here, we integrate benthic foraminiferal assemblages from before, during, and after OAE2 via multivariate ordination analysis to examine spatial patterns in faunal responses across the western United States on a common scale and to interrogate a previously defined faunal marker commonly used for basin-wide correlation, the Benthonic Zone (BZ). We identify oxygenation and organic matter quality as primary and secondary controls of faunal variation across the 10 stratigraphic records and use this variation to infer paleoenvironmental changes. Stratigraphic trends reveal, in contrast to previous studies, deoxygenation at the onset of OAE2. They also reveal temporal patterns in oxygenation and productivity consistent with the gradual northward migration of a southern water mass into the WIS. This spatial heterogeneity hinders the use of the BZ as a temporal marker, because assemblages change in response to diachronous environmental change, and thus timing of the BZ with respect to OAE2 is not consistent across the basin. Our study demonstrates that regional processes can overshadow ecosystem responses to global events and underscores the importance of considering how changes in the position of water masses impact the expression of global biogeochemical perturbations.

The spherical encompassing final chamber of the planktonic foraminifera Orbulina universa is a prime example of a complex character whose evolution has been documented by a sequence of intermediate forms. However, the mechanism that induced evolution of the spherical chamber remain unclear. Here we show that shortly after the emergence of Orbulina, documented throughout the oceans, a convergent evolutionary transition occurred in the semi-isolated Paratethys, leading to the emergence of the endemic Velapertina, which occupied a similar niche to Orbulina in the surface waters. Using X-ray computed tomography scanning, we show that the evolution of the encompassing final chamber involved the same sequence of steps in both lineages, combining a progressively spherical shell shape with changes in the position, number, and sizes of apertures. The similarity in the sequence of character acquisitions suggests structural determinism in the way foraminiferal shells are constructed and the presence of natural selection favoring a spherical morphology. Collectively, the emergence of spherical chambers in the two lineages at a similar time suggests that the evolution of this spectacular complex character occurred in response to a singular environmental driver.

Fossils from the deep-sea Ediacaran biotas of Newfoundland are among the oldest architecturally complex soft-bodied macroorganisms on Earth. Most organisms in the Mistaken Point–type biotas of Avalonia—particularly the fractal-branching frondose Rangeomorpha— have been traditionally interpreted as living erect within the water column during life. However, due to the scarcity of documented physical sedimentological proxies associated with fossiliferous beds, Ediacaran paleocurrents have been inferred in some instances from the preferential orientation of fronds. This calls into question the relationship between frond orientation and paleocurrents. In this study, we present an integrated approach from a newly described fossiliferous surface (the “Melrose Surface” in the Fermeuse Formation at Melrose, on the southern portion of the Catalina Dome in the Discovery UNESCO Global Geopark) combining: (1) physical sedimentological evidence for paleocurrent direction in the form of climbing ripple cross-lamination and (2) a series of statistical analyses based on modified polythetic and monothetic clustering techniques reflecting the circular nature of the recorded orientation of Fractofusus misrai specimens. This study demonstrates the reclining rheotropic mode of life of the Ediacaran rangeomorph taxon Fractofusus misrai and presents preliminary inferences suggesting a similar mode of life for Bradgatia sp. and Pectinifrons abyssalis based on qualitative evidence. These results advocate for the consideration of an alternative conceptual hypothesis for position of life of Ediacaran organisms in which they are interpreted as having lived reclined on the seafloor, in the position that they are preserved.

The frequency of biotic invasions in modern ecosystems is increasing due to global trade moving taxa outside their native ranges and climate change facilitating establishment of taxa in previously inhospitable regions. Thus, developing a holistic understanding of biotic invasions and how they impact ecosystems over different timescales—from annual to geologic timescales—is vital. Herein we examine a geologically brief invasion event, the Clarksville Phase of the Richmondian Invasion. Prior analyses have established general ecological and evolutionary patterns across the entire Richmondian Invasion, but recent sequence stratigraphic refinement makes analysis of individual invasion pulses possible for the first time. We examine biotic change across the Clarksville Phase and identify invasion impacts on diversity, paleocommunity composition, and niche stability. Invader arrival and success was strongly linked to increased propagule pressure facilitated by sea-level changes. Invaders initially colonized deep subtidal environments and then moved offshore facilitated by rapid niche evolution during the invasion interval. Invasive taxa that attained the largest population sizes belonged to previously underutilized ecological guilds. Overall, the introduction of the invasive taxa resulted in increased diversity that was maintained into the postinvasion interval accompanied by a change in community composition in which the invaders became dominant paleocommunity members. Combined, these analyses document a biotic invasion facilitated by climate change that increased local diversity through invaders occupying underutilized ecospace and competition-related niche contraction on millennial timescales. Developing a long-term perspective to accompany shorter-term studies facilitates predicting the long-term impacts of modern invasions and creating better-informed policies and practices.

Understanding spatial variation in origination and extinction can help to unravel the mechanisms underlying macroevolutionary patterns. Although methods have been developed for estimating global origination and extinction rates from the fossil record, no framework exists for applying these methods to restricted spatial regions. Here, we test the efficacy of three metrics for regional analysis, using simulated fossil occurrences. These metrics are then applied to the marine invertebrate record of the Permian and Triassic to examine variation in extinction and origination rates across latitudes. Extinction and origination rates were generally uniform across latitudes for these time intervals, including during the Capitanian and Permian–Triassic mass extinctions. The small magnitude of this variation, combined with the possibility of its attribution to sampling bias, cautions against linking any observed differences to contrasting evolutionary dynamics. Our results indicate that origination and extinction levels were more variable across clades than across latitudes.

Understanding how time averaging changes during burial is essential for using Holocene and Anthropocene cores to analyze ecosystem change, given the many ways in which time averaging affects biodiversity measures. Here, we use transition-rate matrices to explore how the extent of time averaging changes downcore as shells transit through a taphonomically complex mixed layer into permanently buried historical layers: this is a null model, without any temporal changes in rates of sedimentation or bioturbation, to contrast with downcore patterns that might be produced by human activity. Assuming stochastic burial and exhumation movements of shells between increments within the mixed layer and stochastic disintegration within increments, we find that almost all combinations of net sedimentation, mixing, and disintegration produce a downcore increase in time averaging (interquartile range [IQR] of shell ages), this trend is typically associated with a decrease in kurtosis and skewness and by a shift from right-skewed to symmetrical age distributions. A downcore increase in time averaging is thus the null expectation wherever bioturbation generates an internally structured mixed layer (i.e., a surface, well-mixed layer is underlain by an incompletely mixed layer): under these conditions, shells are mixed throughout the entire mixed layer at a slower rate than they are buried below it by sedimentation. This downcore trend created by mixing is further amplified by the downcore decline in disintegration rate. We find that transition-rate matrices accurately reproduce the downcore changes in IQR, skewness, and kurtosis observed in bivalve assemblages from the southern California shelf. The right-skewed shell age-frequency distributions typical of surface death assemblages—the focus of most actualistic research—might be fossilized under exceptional conditions of episodic anoxia or sudden burial. However, such right-skewed assemblages will typically not survive transit through the surface mixed layer into subsurface historical layers: they are geologically transient. The deep-time fossil record will be dominated instead by the more time-averaged assemblages with weakly skewed age distributions that form in the lower parts of the mixed layer.

Biogeochemical analyses of organisms' tissues provide direct proxies for diets, behaviors, and environmental interactions that have proven invaluable for studies of extant and extinct species. Applying these to Cretaceous ecosystems has at times produced anomalous results, however, as dinosaurs preserve unusually positive stable carbon isotope compositions relative to extant C₃-feeding vertebrates. This has been hypothesized to be a unique property of dinosaur dietary physiology, with potential significance for our interpretations of their paleobiology. We test that hypothesis through multi-taxic stable carbon isotope analyses of a spatiotemporally constrained locality in the Late Cretaceous of Canada, and compare the results to a modern near-analogue environment in Louisiana. The stable carbon isotope anomaly is present in all sampled fossil vertebrates, dinosaur or not. This suggests another more widespread factor is responsible. Examinations of diagenetic effects suggest that, where present, they are insufficient to explain the isotope anomaly. The isotope anomaly is therefore not primarily the result of a unique dietary physiology of dinosaurs, but rather a mix of factors impacting all taxa, such as environmental and/or source-diet differences. Our study underscores the importance of multi-taxic samples from spatiotemporally constrained localities in testing hypotheses of extinct organisms and ecosystems, and in the use of modern data to “ground truth” when evaluating analogue versus non-analogue conditions in greenhouse paleoecosystems.