Pierce, D. A. Mechanistic Models for Radiation Carcinogenesis and the Atomic Bomb Survivor Data. Radiat. Res. 160, 718–723 (2003).

Recently, Heidenreich et al. (Radiat. Res., 158, 607–617, 2002) suggested that the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) A-bomb survivor cohort study is not large enough to discriminate between various possible carcinogenic mechanisms. At least with the current follow-up, this is true to some extent, but I think the specific issues are rather different than they suggest. In particular, I do not think it is true—as they further indicate—that various models fit the data about equally well while estimating very different patterns of excess risk, which would imply that these patterns cannot be reasonably well characterized. I will point to specific criticisms of their approach to the data and offer some more general comments on mechanistic modeling approaches. Although there are important distinctions, I suggest on a very optimistic note that the two major approaches may be converging, and soon the main differences may not be in the assumptions made but in the aims of the modeling.