The maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used to create a model of the suitable environment for the cactus weevil, Cactophagus spinolae (Gyllenhal) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in Mexico and to analyze the climatic factors influencing the weevil's potential distribution and possible impacts on another Cactaceae species. Areas located west of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, south of the Mexican Plateu, east of the Balsas Basin, and northwest of the Sierra Madre del Sur biogeographical provinces were found to be more suitable for the emergence of the cactus weevil. The climatic variables that determine the distribution of C. spinolae were seasonal temperatures (24.5%) and precipitation of coldest quarter (24.0%). The commercial production areas of edible Opuntia Mill. (prickly pear cactus and barbary fig) and pitahaya in Central Mexico match with the environmental suitability calculated for the cactus weevil.