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19 March 2019 Preventing local extinctions of tidal marsh endemic Seaside Sparrows and Saltmarsh Sparrows in eastern North America
Samuel G. Roberts, Rebecca A. Longenecker, Matthew A. Etterson, Chris S. Elphick, Brian J. Olsen, W. Gregory Shriver
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Abstract

Globally limited to 45,000 km2, salt marshes and their endemic species are threatened by numerous anthropogenic influences, including sea-level rise and predator pressure on survival and nesting success. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, Seaside (Ammospiza maritima) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacuta) sparrows are endemic to salt marshes, with Saltmarsh Sparrows declining by 9% annually. Because vital rates and factors affecting population persistence vary for both species, local estimates are necessary to best predict population persistence in response to management actions. We used a metapopulation model to estimate the population viability of the breeding Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrow populations in coastal New Jersey over a 42-yr period. We incorporated empirical data on the vital rates and abundances of these populations and simulated the effect of low (0.35 m) and high (0.75 m) levels of sea-level rise. We found that the Seaside Sparrow population persisted under both sea-level rise scenarios; however, the Saltmarsh Sparrow population reached a quasi-extinction threshold within 20 yr. Using the same framework, we modeled potential management scenarios that could increase the persistence probability of Saltmarsh Sparrows and found that fecundity and juvenile survival rates will require at least a 15% concurrent increase for the local population to persist beyond 2050. Future field research should evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of management actions, such as predator control, for increasing Saltmarsh Sparrow vital rates in order to maintain the species in coastal New Jersey.

Copyright ©American Ornithological Society [2019]. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model).
Samuel G. Roberts, Rebecca A. Longenecker, Matthew A. Etterson, Chris S. Elphick, Brian J. Olsen, and W. Gregory Shriver "Preventing local extinctions of tidal marsh endemic Seaside Sparrows and Saltmarsh Sparrows in eastern North America," The Condor 121(1), 1-14, (19 March 2019). https://doi.org/10.1093/condor/duy024
Received: 15 October 2018; Accepted: 11 December 2018; Published: 19 March 2019
KEYWORDS
Ammospiza caudacuta
Ammospiza maritima
population viability analysis
predator control
Salt marsh
sea-level rise
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