We determined the effect of the seasonal distribution of summer rainfall and associated seasonal changes in vegetation on the timing of reproduction and reproductive success of the Rufous-winged Sparrow (Peucaea carpalis) in the plains of central Sonora, Mexico, and influence of exotic buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare). We monitored 302 nests twice weekly from early July to early October of 2012–2014. We fitted Bayesian logistic-exposure models for nest survival data using covariables year, nest stage, date, normalized difference vegetation index, shrub cover, buffelgrass cover, and nest height. Mean daily nest survival probability equaled 95.9% (95% CRI 95.1%–96.1%), with nest survival probability averaging 36.3% (95% CRI 30.2%–42.5%) during the nesting season.We found evidence that daily nest survival probability differed between nest stages but variation in environmental explanatory variables among nests did not explain variation in daily nest survival probability, despite suggestive evidence of a positive association between NDVI and daily nest survival probability. Daily nest survival probability seemed unaffected by the habitat alteration in buffelgrass prairies, suggesting that the Rufous-winged Sparrow may be resilient to habitat transformation in the center of its distribution.