The need to protect imperiled salmon stocks along the Pacific coast of North America has led to an increasing use of mark-selective fisheries (MSFs) as a management strategy to reduce harvest mortality of wild salmon while allowing harvest of abundant hatchery salmon. However, MSFs remain untested in ocean fisheries for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha off the coasts of California and Oregon, where hatchery fish have been estimated to compose the majority of Chinook salmon but where harvests have been restricted to protect several imperiled stocks. We developed a quantitative framework based on conventional cohort models to examine how aggregate ocean harvest and in-river escapement of Sacramento River fall-run Chinook salmon, the numerically dominant stock in the region, would have differed under MSF scenarios compared with the historic, traditional fishery. At historic contact rates (fishing effort) for 1988–2007, we estimated that annual in-river escapement of natural-origin fish would have increased by 119% on average under MSF scenarios, while reductions in harvest would have been inversely proportional to the fraction of hatchery-origin fish. During the more recent period of constrained fishing (2001–2007), we estimated MSF outcomes for a range of plausible contact rates (40–60% of age-4 fish) and hatchery fractions (40–80% of Chinook salmon). The combination of these factors determined the magnitude of estimated harvest reductions or gains under MSFs, with total MSF harvest (2001–2007) ranging from 46% lower to 48% higher than historic harvest. Increases in total escapement of natural-origin fish (2001–2007) under MSFs ranged from 24% to 48% depending on the contact rate. Comparisons between the traditional fishery and simulated MSF outcomes were robust to a wide range of cohort parameter values, suggesting that our aggregate results provide useful insights into potential MSF outcomes and the effects of key uncertainties.