Paleobiology can offer diverse insights into how climate change has affected past species and ecosystems. Timely and important areas of research focus on the potential of paleobiology to contribute to solutions for climate impacts on natural ecosystems. But how far can past responses to abrupt climate change be generalized to derive predictions for the modern and future worlds? The long timescales over which biological responses are observed in the deep-time past hamper the applicability of paleontological observations, but by how much? To address these questions, we review paleontological evidence for the impacts of geologically rapid climatic change. Fruitful avenues for future research lie in (1) characterizing the relationship between the magnitude of warming and extinction toll, (2) using physiology to bridge timescales, and (3) assessing the role of long-term climate history to predict the impact of short-term climate change. Identifying how consistent and robust paleontological signals are across timescales will help to make deep-time observations more useful for the modern world.

Ancient changes in the biosphere, from organismic traits to wholesale ecosystem changes, can be aligned with climate forcing across the Phanerozoic. Clear examples of abrupt climate warming causing biodiversity crises are primarily found between the Permian and Paleogene periods. During these times, catastrophic events occurred, resembling the extreme climate scenarios projected for the near future. The paleobiologic literature around these events generally supports the hypothesis that abrupt climate change was a dominant trigger of extinction and/or ecological crisis. When climate change and climate history are considered, virtually all post-Paleozoic global biotic events can be confidently attributed to climatic change, with abrupt warming (hyperthermal events) leaving the most consistent fingerprint. The combined stress of deoxygenation and warming are sufficient to explain marine extinction patterns across most hyperthermal events. Although ocean acidification may have contributed, the direct role of pH on the extinction toll of organisms is not consistently demonstrated. Future research can enhance the correspondence between the magnitudes of climatic changes and their biological impacts, even though observed rates of change cannot currently be compared across different timescales. Mimicking multi-scale approaches in modern ecology, paleontological approaches to climate impact research will benefit from specifically targeting scaling relationships.