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1 January 2019 Impacts of climate Change, Weather Extremes and Alternative Strategies in Managed Forests
Narayanan Subramanian, Urban Nilsson, Magnus Mossberg, Johan Bergh
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Abstract

The growth rate of most tree species in boreal forests will increase with changing climate. This increase is counterbalanced by an increased risk of damage due to extreme weather events. It is believed that the risk of storm damage will increase over time, especially if forests continue to be managed as they are today. In this study, a new landscape-level hybrid forest growth model 3PG-Heureka was developed and simulations were performed to predict the damage caused by storm events in Kronoberg county, over a period of 91 years (2010–2100) with different alternative management regimes under various climatic scenarios (historic, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results indicate that damage caused by storm events could drastically reduce the annual volume increment and annual net revenue obtained from forest landscapes if current forest management regimes are used. These problems can be reduced by adopting alternative management strategies involving avoiding thinning, shorter rotation periods and planting alternative tree species. Alternative management strategies could potentially improve annual volume increments and net revenue obtained while reducing storm-felling. Planting Scots pine instead of Norway spruce across the landscape to minimize storm damage is predicted to be less effective than reducing rotation periods.

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Narayanan Subramanian, Urban Nilsson, Magnus Mossberg, and Johan Bergh "Impacts of climate Change, Weather Extremes and Alternative Strategies in Managed Forests," Ecoscience 26(1), 53-70, (1 January 2019). https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2018.1515597
Received: 23 April 2018; Accepted: 22 July 2018; Published: 1 January 2019
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KEYWORDS
Landscape modelling
net income
parameterization
short rotation forestry
storm-felling
Timber harvesting
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