Suursaar, Ü.; Sepp, M.; Post, P., and Mäll, M., 2018. An inventory of historic storms and cyclone tracks that have caused met-ocean and coastal risks in the eastern Baltic Sea. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 531–535. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

Located on relatively high latitudes, the eastern section of the practically tideless Baltic Sea is frequently battered by extratropical cyclones that have caused storm surges of up to 421 cm (at St. Petersburg, Russia), and 275 cm at Pärnu (Estonia). The analysis of storms includes the events that have yielded the highest sea levels at Pärnu and Narva-Jõesuu tide gauges on an annual basis from 1950–2016. For each event, corresponding cyclone tracks have been extracted from the cyclone database, which is based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of air pressure fields in a six–hour interval. Track matches for 109 surge cases were found, including 43 for Pärnu, 42 for Narva-Jõesuu, and 24 common for both locations. Although cyclones from several distinct directions can approach Estonia and the Gulf of Finland area, the most serious meteorological, oceanographic (met-ocean), as well as coastal impacts were connected to westerly approaching deep cyclones with tracks crossing Scandinavia and Southern Finland. A suitable course for the cyclone and a pre-elevated (by up to 70 cm) average Baltic Sea level as a result of preceding series of cyclones are among the important factors which may result in destructive event.