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18 March 2024 Ensemble forecasting of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) distribution and habitat suitability in south-western Iran
Fatemeh Jamali, Seyed Mehdi Amininasab, Hamid Taleshi, Hossein Madadi
Author Affiliations +
Abstract

Context. The eastern bettong (Bettongia gaimardi) and the long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) are mycophagous marsupials regarded as both keystone species and ecosystem engineers. Despite Tasmania being a refuge for these declining species, their niche partitioning is poorly understood.Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to global biodiversity, especially for wide-ranging apex carnivores. The Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) is an endangered species. Although populations of Persian leopards are declining, the species remains widely distributed across large areas of Iran.

Aims. This study aimed to determine habitat suitability for Persian leopards in the Khaeiz and Sorkh protected area of south-western Iran and to identify the most significant factors influencing their habitat use/selection and spatial distribution.

Methods. We performed species distribution modelling in two stages: First, we ran the model with three abiotic predictors: slope; aspect; and distance from water resources. In the second stage, modelling was conducted using three ecological predictors: caracal distribution; wild goat distribution; and livestock distribution. Ensemble modelling was applied based on five replicates of eight SDMs (species distribution models; GLM, CTA, FDA, GBM, ANN, MARS, RF and MaxEnt).

Key results. We observed only minor differences in habitat suitability between the abiotic and ecological models. Habitat suitability for Persian leopards was higher in steeper areas, close to water resources and near the distribution of caracals, livestock and wild goats. The ecological model predicted 2.03% (329 ha) more suitable habitat than the abiotic model did.

Conclusions. Most habitat suitability models focus on abiotic variables, but we found that ecological variables offer similar predictive power for determining the habitat suitability of Persian leopards.

Implications. Habitat suitability models for Persian leopards can be used to guide conservation and management decisions. They are also useful indicating where conflicts between predators and humans may occur.

Fatemeh Jamali, Seyed Mehdi Amininasab, Hamid Taleshi, and Hossein Madadi "Ensemble forecasting of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) distribution and habitat suitability in south-western Iran," Wildlife Research 51(3), (18 March 2024). https://doi.org/10.1071/WR23010
Received: 28 March 2022; Accepted: 25 February 2024; Published: 18 March 2024
KEYWORDS
caracal
conservation
ensemble forecasting
felids
human–wildlife conflict
livestock
Panthera pardus saxicolor
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